The Tatum Survey of Business Conditions October 2011
Summary as of October 1, 2011
Business Conditions in the month leading to October 1 continued to decline after the downturn reported in last month’s survey. This continued deterioration has soured our respondents and the 60-day forward outlook has turned negative compared to the cautious optimism shown last month. Backlogs have also deteriorated, with little optimism that they will improve in the next 60 days.
Business Conditions in the month leading to October 1 continued to decline after the downturn reported in last month’s survey. This continued deterioration has soured our respondents and the 60-day forward outlook has turned negative compared to the cautious optimism shown last month. Backlogs have also deteriorated, with little optimism that they will improve in the next 60 days.
Business Conditions in the month leading to October 1 continued to decline after the downturn reported in last month’s survey. This continued deterioration has soured our respondents and the 60-day forward outlook has turned negative compared to the cautious optimism shown last month. Backlogs have also deteriorated, with little optimism that they will improve in the next 60 days.
Business Conditions in the month leading to October 1 continued to decline after the downturn reported in last month’s survey. This continued deterioration has soured our respondents and the 60-day forward outlook has turned negative compared to the cautious optimism shown last month. Backlogs have also deteriorated, with little optimism that they will improve in the next 60 days.
Index of Business Conditions
The Tatum Index of Business Conditions is a simple average of the ratio of our respondents who are reporting improvement versus those reporting a worsening in business conditions for the past 30 days and the next 60 days.
As of October 1st, the Tatum Index of Business Conditions decreased significantly to approximately 1.7 from 2.9 a month ago, a two-year low. In a range of 3.0 to 4.0, we have noted a very high correlation with near zero economic growth and below 3.0 suggests recession in the Tatum Index (the Index was in this range throughout the 2008-2009 recession).
{Index of Business Conditions}
Order Backlogs
The percentage of respondents who reported an improvement in backlogs declined to 25% from 28% a month ago. The percentage reporting worsened backlogs increased to 20% from 18% last month.
{Order Backlogs}
Capital Expenditure Commitments
The percentage of respondents committing more on capital equipment increased to 23% from 21%. The percentage that committed less on capital equipment decreased to 16% from 26%.
{Capital Expenditure Commitments}
Employment
The percentage of respondents hiring more workers stayed flat at 22%. The percentage that indicated they did less hiring worsened to 16% from 10% in the prior month.
{Employment}
Capital Availability and Pricing
The percentage of respondents indicating an improvement in financing conditions declined to 11% from 14%. The percentage who indicated conditions were worsening jumped to 23% from 16% last month.
{Capital Availability and Pricing}
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October 2011 Tatum Survey of Business Conditions
Sam Norwood, Senior Partner
Glenn Passin, Partner
www.TatumLLC.com
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