Biotech: The Third Wave (Part II)
The Earth can handle only a few modern societies with large populations that consume and pollute as much as we do. At this exact point in time, we need to ask: can the planet continue to be a good place to live with plentiful supplies of fresh water, air and food, if the population of rapidly developing countries, such as China, shift from living off the land and riding bicycles to living in cities with modern conveniences and driving cars?
If you ad other developing nations with large populations, such as India, where they are also growing and modernizing at a rapid rate, the answer is clearly no. No, that is, if there are not changes to the way all nations produce, manufacture, and run their modern devices. We are rapidly nearing a global turning point that will determine the quality of life for all of us alive today as well as for future generations.
Canary In The Coal Mine
The recent global steel shortage and the resulting high prices are like a canary in the coal mine; a signpost for bad things to come if we fail to take actions to shape the future. To better understand the early stages of the problem, look at what is happening in China today.
China’s population is so large, and it’s modernizing and growing so quickly, building skyscraper after skyscraper s it jumps into the 21st Century that it is sucking up global resources at an ever increasing rate. In this case, its builders have to search the globe for steel to feed their appetite for new buildings. Realizing the growing demand for steel, more and more companies around the world are jumping into the steel business, which is by no means a clean air friendly business.
The steel shortage is just the beginning. As the massive Chinese population starts to shift from the use of bicycles to cars, and from paper to plastic, oil will be the next resource in increasing demand.
Peak Oil
In my recent travels to Washington DC, there has been much discussion about the subject of peak oil. The question circulating the capital is: have we taken more than 50% of the existing oil out of the Earth? If this is true, and many scientists, including oil company researchers, believe that it is, then we are beginning the downward slope of the global oil supply.
Why the big concern? It took roughly 100 years to use half of the Earth’s oil, but during that time period, we didn’t start out with gas-guzzling SUVs. Thanks to modern society’s dependence on oil, and the rapid growth of developing countries and their increasing need for oil, it will take far fewer years to consume the other half of the total oil supply. And just like steel, as the supply goes down and the demand goes up, the price for oil will go up, way up.
Bio Alternatives
Biotech’s third wave, industrial and environmental biotechnology, will provide meaningful alternatives. A good example is our first news item in this newsletter.
Given the planet’s microbial abundance, it is increasingly clear that there are existing organisms that can be transformed into almost any industrial use. Given the eco-friendly advantages industrial biotechnology products have to offer and the increasingly ecological challenges the people on this planet face in the decades ahead, it is clear that industrial and environmental biotechnology will experience rapid growth and will play a significant role in shaping the future of sustainability.
TECHNOTRENDS® Newsletter is published twelve times per year by Burrus Research Associates, Inc., Patti Thomsen, Editor, P.O. Box 47, Hartland, WI 53029-0047. For subscription information call 1-800-827-6770, FAX 262-367-7163, or E-MAIL office@burrus.com.
Daniel Burrus, one of the world's leading technology forecasters, business strategists, and author of six books
Copyright 2004 Author retains copyright. All Rights Reserved.
